The Slow Rise of the Greens and the Fragmentation of Two Party Politics

Photo: Heather Stanley (flickr)

 

Richard Wood discusses the fundamental shifts in the nature of British party politics and the rise of alternative contenders.

One could easily be forgiven if they made the mistake of thinking that UKIP won the 2013 county council elections and took control of every council with overwhelming majorities. The media attention on Nigel Farage and his purple revolutionaries has been tremendously high, resulting in more than needed airtime for the party.

Although UKIP made a ‘breakthrough’, as they finished with a total of 147 councillors from almost zero, they did not end up in control of any councils and did not make significant gains in the north. Due to all the UKIP hype, one political force has suffered in terms of public attention – the Greens.

Natalie Bennett’s party made a modest net gain of five councillors, but has been somewhat marginalised by the media. Compared with Farage’s total of 147 it does not look like much, but the party gained seats in places outside its heartland of Brighton, such as in Bristol, Essex and the West Midlands.

The Green Party (of England and Wales, as Scotland has a separate Green Party which supports Scottish independence) has made progressive gains over the last few years. In the 2009 European parliament elections the party, lead by Caroline Lucas at the time, won almost 10% of the vote share, gaining over a million votes.

A year after this result, which was once again overshadowed by UKIP’s successes as they came second in the elections to the Conservatives, the party made history. 2010 was the year when Gordon Brown’s Labour fell from power, Nigel Farage was in a plane crash and lost when standing against the House speaker John Bercow, and significantly the Greens won their first MP – Caroline Lucas.

In contrast to UKIP, although the far right party is a force to be reckoned with, the Greens are one up on them in Westminster. Unlike UKIP, they have an MP. Nigel Farage has confirmed he will stand in 2015 for a seat, however he has not thought about where. The Greens plan to put forward more candidates than before and win more MPs.

What the 2013 county council elections have shown us is that the British people are not afraid of change. Whether that be disaffected Labour supporters moving towards the Greens, or grumbling traditional Tories moving towards UKIP, the outcome is the same – a change in the political landscape. The old party system is breaking up.

Natalie Bennett has recently stated that “What we’re seeing is a break-up of the traditional two – or three- party system in Britain”. This further reiterates the point that the old power game of ping-pong between the largest parties is drawing to an ultimate close.

Commentators say we are moving towards a four party system with UKIP being the third force in British politics. But there are not just four parties. The left and right are fragmenting into different factions. Change is happening right now. It is clear that the first-past-the-post system for English and Welsh councils, as well as for Westminster, is becoming unsustainable. With the rise of the Greens and UKIP, more people are wanting more change. 
Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde pointed out that 2013 was the first election where the projected national vote share (PNS) for the main three parties was below 30% each. Something is happening in British politics. That is a tremendous change, and it is manifested by not just UKIP, but the Greens and other small parties too. For example, the SNP’s recent success in Scotland.

British political ground is shifting, and it’s not just UKIP making the change.

By Richard Wood.

Can Labour reclaim Scotland from the Nationalists?

Photo: Scottish Labour (Flickr)

A sea of yellow flooded the Scottish political landscape back in 2011 when Alex Salmond’s SNP turned their minority into an undeniable majority. However, 41/59 of Scotland’s MPs in Westminster are Labour, whereas the SNP only have 6. Although this is partly down to the fact that the Scottish Parliament has aspects of proportional representation and Westminster does not, it is still clear that Scots vote differently in Holyrood and Westminster elections. To put it crudely Scots vote Labour to keep the Tories out at Westminster, but vote SNP at Holyrood as they see the Salmond administration as being better at protecting Scottish interests. Labour once dominated Holyrood and have been fundamental to Scottish politics for years, but now that their influence has been significantly diminished is there anyway to get it back?

First of all Scottish Labour need a well recognised and respected leader. The previous leader Iain Gray was a decent enough figure, but without someone on a par to Alex Salmond, Scottish Labour’s chances are noticeably weakened. Furthermore, as for the current Labour leader – Johann Lamont – before the leadership election no one had ever heard of her. Even now, many still have not, which is not a position the party should be finding themselves in. She was democratically elected, but whilst Mr Salmond leads the SNP, Scottish politics is dominated by the politics of personality and oratory. Policies and ideas matter, but not as much as they should. If not being able to rival Alex Salmond’s personality (and ego) is a cause for Labour’s decline and the party wishes to remain a legitimate force, it must find a solution.

Alistair Darling currently leads the ‘Better Together’ campaign and so is in no position to take the reigns of the party, however, he is often suggested as a viable alternative. He is charismatic, energetic and often deemed a popular figure in the Labour party and across Scotland, hence his role in ‘Better Together.’ Maybe after the referendum in 2014, which will undoubtedly be a ‘No’ vote, he will resign as an MP, find a byelection and become an MSP. Then maybe he could try for leader. This is all speculation of course, but it offers an interesting solution.

In terms of policy, Scottish Labour attempt to disagree with the SNP at almost every turn. The politics of opportunism is rife in Holyrood. The SNP have taken over the centre left of Scottish politics, which is where Scotland’s centre ground is situated. In September of last year Johann Lamont made a speech where she denounced commitment to free tuition fees as well as free prescriptions. Furthermore, there has been a lot of speculation on her acceptance of Trident and the keeping of nuclear submarines in Faslane. It is clear that Scottish Labour members, who have always been further to the left than their Westminster contempories, are at last following the trend. This is probably to show opposition to the SNP, but Scotland is traditionally a left of centre nation and such a response to SNP governance is just moving away from the Scottish centre ground. If Labour wish to reclaim Scotland they are going to have to start thinking about what the Scottish people want, rather than play at opportunism with the SNP.

It is clear that Labour have got a long way to go if they wish to reclaim Holyrood. In 2014 after a vote to keep the union together, perhaps Alex Salmond will stand down and Labour will have a chance again. However, there remain other popular figures in the SNP, such as Nicola Sturgeon, who would probably take Alex Salmond’s job in the run up to the 2016 election. As for Labour’s policies, moving away from their traditional left of centre ground will have a damaging effect on them as Scotland is traditionally left of centre. Perhaps Alistair Darling will make an entrance into Holyrood or Johann Lamont will become extremely popular, but right now it is far too early to tell. 2016 could see Labour’s comeback as the SNP will undoubtedly lose the referendum, but the SNP consistently outstrip the other Scottish parties in the polls, showing that perhaps even a vote to keep the UK together may not kill of the SNP flame. The 2014 referendum results and repercussions will draw the battleground for 2016. Only after the results of 18th September 2014 and May 2015 can we make a more accurate guess as to what the fate of Labour in Scotland will be.

Richard Wood. Follow on Twitter @rwood94