The end of brand Cameron?

Photo: University Hospitals Birmingham (Flickr)

The once infallible Cameron brand is now in trouble, writes Lizzie Hepworth.

In 2005, the Tories broke with their past when they elected a leader who was, for the first time since Major, actually electable as a Prime Minister. The speech he gave to Conference, just before being elected leader, wasn’t necessarily in tune with a lot of the Party members, but whilst they may not have agreed with what he was saying, they recognised that many members of the public would.

After pinching the top spot from under the nose of David Davis, who was the favourite before Cameron delivered his note-free speech, Cameron started his marathon to Election Day. His rebrand in the early days of his leadership involved changing the Party logo to an oak tree – traditional yet environmentally friendly; a new colour scheme – still blue but going green; and a trip to visit huskies – a more compassionate Conservative genuinely concerned with the environment and dedicated to combating global warming.

All these image changes gave Cameron a big lead over Blair, increasingly unpopular after Iraq, and helped extend his honeymoon as Tory leader. The public were, to a degree, eager to get rid of Blair; his own members were pleased to be back in contention for government, whether they liked Cameron or not; and Cameron gave very little away in terms policy, allowing him to criticise Blair, but avoid difficult questions over his own policies. But these were simpler times.

Blair’s departure, the economic situation and the end of his honeymoon all coincided, and resulted in a slump in the polls. Cameron’s few policies now seemed irrelevant and out of touch with what was going on in the world. The Big Society appeared to be at odds with the cuts the Tories were proposing, and with Brown enjoying his honeymoon, Cameron began to struggle to maintain his own Party’s support. If he lost his grip on public support, his Party would follow suit, and he would revert to being the leader of a dysfunctional and divided Conservative Party. As Iain Duncan-Smith would have been able to tell him, that would have sealed his fate.

Cameron managed to maintain his position, and his new image as a compassionate Conservative was resurrected to its former glory when he entered the Coalition with Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. This has perhaps given Cameron the best opportunity he could have asked for in terms of helping him to maintain a socially liberal agenda. But it hasn’t been smooth sailing.

Whilst the Liberal Democrats have provided Cameron with an excuse for pursuing his liberal ideas, such as supporting gay marriage, his time as leader of the Coalition Government has not been great in terms of his brand. The Big Society has had numerous re-launches whilst Cameron has been in government; however it now appears to have been abandoned after all seemingly failed. Cameron was forced, perhaps by his own Party members, to exercise the veto in Europe, which has heralded as the end of cuddly Cameron, and a glimpse of “bulldog” Cameron, but appeared popular with the public. But probably the biggest threats to brand Cameron have been the fiasco over the NHS Bill, the “pasty tax” and the accusations of cash for access to Cameron.

The NHS had been the bedrock of Cameron’s brand, allowing him to associate himself with the average person, and their concerns over health care. However the delays over legislation and the forced U-turn threatened to damage Cameron’s credibility and entire brand. Whilst Cameron (and Andrew Lansley) were still licking their wounds, along came the “pasty tax” which saw the Conservative Party desperately struggling to remember when they last went to Greggs, ate a pasty and lived like the normal Briton.

Cameron himself failed to convince, as in an out of character PR failure, he recalled the last time he ate a pasty was at Cornwall Pasty Company in Leeds Railway station – a branch that closed down almost five years ago (although the travesty was more that he chose Cornwall Pasty Co over Greggs – more of a religion than a pie shop in the North). Whilst these two incidents almost certainly planted the seed of doubt in Cameron’s affinity with the average voter, they were somewhat over exaggerated by the media in terms of importance, with some terming the incident “Pastygate” which is hopefully not a serious comparison of a tax on baked goods with Watergate…but then this is the British media.

But it is the Cruddas scandal which threatens to reinforce the idea that the Tories are the same old rich gentleman’s club and a party of the rich. Whilst some believe that this scandal only reinforces what they already assumed Cameron and all politicians did, it does not help Cameron’s claim that he has reinvented the Tory Party, and certainly does not help him to connect with the voters he lost through spending cuts and unpopular policies.

Brand Cameron has broken the curse of the Tory leader in so far as Cameron is the PM. But will it last? Steve Hilton has left Number 10, but is this because he no longer believes in the Big Society, because it’s failed, because he’s been pushed or for his own reasons, and will be back before the next election? Whichever one it is, it appears the Big Society is well and truly on a backburner, and Cameron is now more concerned with being the PM, holding the Coalition together and maintaining loyalty within his Party than he is with trying to constantly maintain his new brand.

As recent opinion polls have put Ed Miliband ahead of Cameron is terms of leadership qualities (they’re all viewed as scoring minus points in terms of being a good leader, so it’s which one is the least worst than which is the best…) and the local election results, Cameron needs to maintain a degree of his new, rebranded and detoxified Conservative Party, especially if he plans to lead them into the 2015 General Election.

Lizzie Hepworth

Boris: The True Tory Poster Boy

Photo: Mark Auer (Flickr)

Whatever reasons may be used to explain the London Mayoral election result it’s hard to deny it was a remarkable victory for Boris Johnson. Labour may not have fielded the ideal candidate, but it would be presumptive to suggest that ‘anyone but Ken’ would have simply strolled into City Hall. Livingstone might have been a tired choice, but he was a true London heavyweight with much appeal to traditional Labour voters; particularly those who have abandoned the party since the New Labour direction imposed by Tony Blair. As a result, Ken’s polling was barely a percentage point behind that of the Labour Assembly vote.

It’s not hard to put the finger on what really won Boris the keys back to City Hall for another four years. In the main, it was Boris himself. So what is so attractive about Boris and what did his campaign have that others didn’t? Some of his supporters and commentators have been quick to highlight the role played by proficient Australian campaign director Lynton Crosby, even recommending he be parachuted into Number 10 to try and replicate his success achieved with Boris Johnson at the General Election in 2015.

Without doubt, the BackBoris campaign was well-run, intense on the ground and the use of technologies like the tele-town hall telephone canvassing system which reached around 50,000 voters in an hour was innovative. But it doesn’t account for Boris’ wider appeal. Indeed, Boris’ election strategy, based mainly on his 9-point plan, was sensible, but not entirely inspiring. Arguably, Ken’s Fare Deal, regardless of its questionable budgetary foundations, was more successful at connecting with the voters. Furthermore, despite recent calls from Tory MPs that Boris’ more traditional conservative policies show Cameron the way to win votes, I doubt that Boris’ position on issues such as Europe, and even lower taxes, won him the election. Some of the MPs making noise on this issue may have exaggerated Boris’ traditional conservative leanings; conveniently forgetting his commitment to green politics and his liberal social attitudes.

It’s not the most satisfying conclusion for politics, but it would be naive to suggest that anything other than Boris’ personality brought him across the line. This was a Boris, rather than a Conservative, victory. A number of factors contribute to his appeal. He’s perceived in the eyes of the public as being willing to speak his mind. By showing a sense of vulnerability, lacking the slick quality seemingly demanded of the modern day politician, he seems more genuine. And despite his Eton and Oxford educated ‘posh boy’ background, identical to that of David Cameron, he’s far more ready to embrace it and use it to his advantage.

The likability of Boris’ personality is well documented, but it would be unwise to ignore his political message, even it does follow less of the small ‘c’ conservative line that some have tried to claim, and even if it wasn’t the be all and end all of his success. Indeed, there are lessons for Cameron to learn from Boris, who struck the right chord by emphasising core issues during his campaign such as the council tax freeze, getting more police out on the beat and upgrading crucial infrastructure.

Let’s not forget that the Prime Minister does have to deal with maintaining a Coalition by keeping his Liberal Democrat partners content. It certainly does make it harder for him to communicate a traditional conservative message, and in light of the electoral drubbing suffered by Clegg’s party recently, the Liberal Democrats are only going to become more resistant. But the party leadership do need to try and connect with what matters to the likes of voters in Harlow, symbolic of ‘Blair country’, who last night switched to Labour after placing their faith in Cameron in 2010.

The London Mayoral contest was by no means a referendum on what the Daily Mail have dubbed ‘wind turbine conservatism’, but it’s true, voters care little for issues such as House of Lords reform, elected mayors, and even gay marriage. Additionally, Boris’ may have succeeded with a sustainability message under the mask of projects such as the ‘Boris Bikes’, but the majority are unlikely to react fondly to environmental policies which lower living standards in such tough economic times. George Osborne’s interview with Andrew Marr on Sunday morning, in which he said he would “focus 100% on the economy” and not get “distracted” by other issues, suggests the local election results have encouraged the government to sit up and concentrate on the issues which matter – don’t expect to hear much of the ‘Big Society’ for a while – but whether this shift of focus results in a significant policy departure remains to be seen.

Just as important that the government are seen to be focussing on the issues that matter, is the issue that they are seen as competent. As Chuka Umuna rightly points out, Tories are seen by some as heartless, unfair and out-of touch, but voters have been willing to accept this in return for efficiency, professionalism and results. The party therefore has a real problem when it’s seen as incompetent. Negative headlines on pasties and grannies might be reduced to communication errors, but the panic caused at the petrol pumps by Francis Maude, and by allowing a reduction in the top rate of tax to overshadow a significant increase of the personal allowance indicates a simple lack of Number 10 to think things through.

Ironically, despite Boris’ much talked about disheveled character, he has struck a remarkably competent figure as Mayor of London. As I say, one of the appeals of his campaign was its responsible and conscientious tone; unwilling to offer an unrealistic promises to attract votes. Critics, Ken Livingstone for one, have argued that Boris has become a ‘do nothing mayor’, but his performance in City Hall has greatly improved his chances of ever making it to the job which he’d really like, that of leader of his party. If the past years teach us anything, it’s that he can no longer simply be dismissed as a harmless joker shouting from the edges.

If Cameron doesn’t turn around the ship rather soon – a ship whose fortunes lie in the hands of a struggling economy – a possible election defeat in 2015 looks ever more likely. Ed Miliband may just become Prime Minister by default. In which case, the Conservatives might be in the position of looking for a new leader. With George Osborne lacking the common touch and Jeremy Hunt’s reputation forever tarnished in light of the ongoing Murdoch scandal, is there really a candidate waiting in the wings with more appeal than Boris? Some commentators, much like Boris must do himself at the moment, may laugh off the suggestion that he might one day become Prime Minister, but it is now distinctly plausible. Of course the fact that Boris’ term at City Hall finishes a year after the next General Election is awkward timing. But where there’s a will, there’s a way, and one thing is for certain: with Boris Johnson, beneath the playful persona, there’s plenty of will.

Robert Smith is Editor of Politiker. Follow on Twitter @RobertSmithUK

* This article was first published at the now defunct Dale & Co.